Model projections for Texas show a worst-case scenario without mask mandate

TX – Daily deaths in Texas from the COVID-19 virus would increase by 50% without a mask mandate, according to data models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation .

Texas hit a peak of daily deaths in mid-January, losing between 300 and 350 Texans per day. That has dipped below 300 deaths per day in February and is projected to continue to decline into the spring with the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Model data shows that, at the rate we are currently, we could have fewer than 25 deaths per day as soon as June. However, projections show the lifting of a mask mandate, assuming a worst-case spread, causes the death rate to stall and stagnate at 100 deaths per day into the summer, a difference of between 25 and 100 new deaths each day.