DALLAS, TX – Summer is on the way. And with comes a fresh political season with renewed intrigue.
The beginning of the midterm election cycle is marked by the end of the Texas legislative session. It will be interesting to see how Republicans, who have long dominated the Texas political scene, sell their accomplishments to Texas voters. In contrast, Democrats have to outline their vision and the reasons for voters to dump their statewide leaders.
It all takes place as Texans continue to emerge from a difficult pandemic.
Here are three things to watch this summer.
The Republican case to remain in power
In 2019 Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Dennis Bonnen touted the Legislature’s focus on putting more money into public education and efforts to reduce the property tax burden. That session followed a 2018 election cycle where Republicans lost 12 seats in the Texas House and two congressional posts.
This time Republicans are coming off impressive 2020 victories, and the legislative session has been largely defined by red meat legislation aimed at election security, such as curbing abortion and enhancing the right to carry a gun.
Expect Abbott and his Republican allies to have a double-barreled message. Along with delivering on the objectives craved by primary voters, they’ll claim a fix to the state’s electric delivery system. The winter storm that killed at least 111 Texans demanded legislative action.
Abbott is facing a primary challenge from former state Sen. Don Huffines of Dallas. The real estate developer has criticized Abbott for implementing a mask mandate and — for a time — shutting down businesses to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
The governor will make the case that Texas is now emerging from the worst of the pandemic in a strong position.
Other Republicans could join Huffines in running against Abbott, including Texas GOP party chairman Allen West.
Whether Beto O’Rourke will help Democrats rebound from 2020 losses
Democrats are having a challenging time trying to find candidates to round out their 2022 statewide ticket.
Party leaders are hoping that former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who in 2018 came within 2.6 percentage points of beating incumbent Republican Ted Cruz for the U.S. Senate, regroups and challenges Abbott for governor.
O’Rourke has said that he’s not planning to run for governor, but he didn’t rule out a campaign against Abbott. With the filing deadline for the 2022 elections in December, time is running short, though redistricting could result in the March primary being moved.
If O’Rourke gets in the race, it gives Democrats a strong candidate at the top of the ticket with the ability to raise significant campaign cash. But O’Rourke, who in 2020 made an ill-fated run for president, has to worry about running against Abbott and taking his third election loss in five years. Another defeat could dash his hopes to win a high-profile election beyond 2022, when the Senate seat held by Cruz will be up again.
The problem for Democrats is that few other big-name politicos want to run against Abbott, including former Housing Secretary Julian Castro and his twin brother, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro.
Lesser-known candidates, including Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, are being mentioned as contenders against Abbott. I got calls from folks who heard about a Jenkins campaign photo session two weeks ago. That could have been for his reelection bid. Jenkins says he’s not interested in running for governor.
The wildcard for both parties is Academy Award-winning actor Matthew McConaughey, who is considering running for governor but has not announced a party affiliation. A recent poll by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler shows McConaughey winning a hypothetical match-up against Abbott.
Democrats could fare better in down-ballot races, particularly against embattled incumbent Ken Paxton for attorney general. Paxton, who is under federal investigation after members of his staff accused him of bribery, abuse of office and other crimes, could face a primary challenge from Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Paxton denies wrongdoing.
The Democratic Party primary could feature a battle between former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski and Dallas-based civil rights lawyer Lee Merritt, who has not declared a party affiliation. More candidates are expected in the field, given that Paxton is considered by Democrats as the weak link in the GOP’s statewide slate.
Houston-area Democrat Mike Collier is seeking a rematch against Patrick, the lieutenant governor.
Special congressional election bonus
Abbott has set July 27 as the date for the special runoff election to replace the late Ron Wright in Congress.
Wright died in February after contracting COVID-19. He’d also been battling cancer.
His widow, Republican activist Susan Wright of Arlington, made the runoff, along with state Rep. Jake Ellzey of Waxahachie.
Wright has the support of former President Donald Trump, while Ellzey is backed by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Wright finished first in the May 5 open primary.
